Global Population Will Peak by Mid-Century

By Robert Preidt
HealthDay Reporter

TUESDAY July 14, 2020 (HealthDay News) – The world’s population is changing, new analysis predicts that it will peak in 2064 at around 9.7 billion people and fall to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.

The United States will experience population growth just after the middle of the century (364 million in 2062). This will be followed by a moderate decline to 336 million by 2100. At this point, it would be the fourth most populous country, according to the modeling study published July 14 in The Lancet.

Because of these demographic changes and the ensuing economic changes, India, Nigeria, China and the United States will be the dominant powers by the end of the century, the study predicts.

“Continued global population growth over the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world’s population,” said study leader Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle. .

“This study provides governments of all countries with the opportunity to begin to rethink their migration, labor and economic development policies to meet the challenges of demographic change,” said Murray in a Press release.

The total fertility rate in the United States – the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime – is expected to drop steadily from 1.8 in 2017 to 1.5 in 2100. This is well below the Minimum birth rate (2.1) deemed necessary to maintain the existing population levels in the long term without immigration, according to the researchers.

However, the United States is expected to have the highest net immigration, with more than half a million more immigrants in 2100 than emigrant, the study predicts.

But a recent backlash against liberal immigration policies in the United States threatens the country’s potential to support population and economic growth, the researchers warned.

Yet by 2100, the United States may have the fourth largest working-age population in the world (about 181 million), after India, Nigeria and China, with immigration likely supporting the labor force. American work.


In addition, the United States had the largest economy in 2017. But in an economic boomerang, China should replace it in 2035, the United States to become the largest economy in 2098, supported by immigration.

Some other predictions from the study:

  • Among the 10 countries with the largest population in 2017 or 2100, the United States is expected to have the fifth life expectancy in 2100 – 82.3 years, up from 78.4 in 2017.
  • Globally, the total fertility rate should drop from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100.
  • By 2100, expected fertility rates in 183 of the 195 countries will not be high enough to maintain their current population without liberal immigration policies.
  • Populations will decrease by more than 50% in 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain.
  • The world will also age. There will be 2.37 billion people over the age of 65 in the world in 2100, compared to 1.7 billion under the age of 20.

The general decline in fertility is due to better access to modern contraception and education for women. But women’s freedom and reproductive rights must not be compromised in response to the declining population, the authors said.

The declining population is potentially good news for reducing carbon emissions and stress on food systems, said the study’s first author, Stein Emil Vollset, a professor at the institute.

However, “with more older people and fewer young people, economic challenges will arise as societies find it difficult to grow with fewer workers and fewer taxpayers,” he added.

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SOURCE:The Lancet, press release, July 14, 2020

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